Force Design

Author: Tianjiang Shuo

Site: https://cislunarspace.cn

Definition

Force Design is the U.S. Space Force service-level activity by which the Space Force determines the force it needs. By forecasting the operational environment five to fifteen years into the future, the Force Design process leverages concept development, wargaming, experimentation, exercises, and mission analysis to inform new requirements, architectures, and operational concepts. The output of Force Design is the Objective Force — the ideal future state of the Space Force's capabilities.

Force Design is a forward-looking planning activity whose core principle is that today's space force building must be based on accurate anticipation of future threats and opportunities, rather than merely satisfying current requirements.

Key Elements

Operational Environment Forecasting

The starting point of Force Design is forecasting the future operational environment over a five-to-fifteen-year horizon. This includes:

  • Threat Assessment: Predicting the counterspace capabilities adversaries may develop over the next five to fifteen years.
  • Technology Trends: Evaluating the impact of emerging technologies (such as artificial intelligence, quantum communications, and on-orbit servicing) on space operations.
  • Geopolitical Environment: Analyzing trends in the international space competition landscape.

Concept Development

Concept development is the core element of Force Design, aimed at exploring new ways and methods for future space operations:

  • Operational Concepts (CONOPS): Describing visions and methods for future space operations.
  • Capability Concepts: Defining future capabilities and technologies needed.
  • Organizational Concepts: Exploring organizational structures that support new operational concepts.

Wargaming and Experimentation

The Force Design process relies heavily on wargaming and experimentation to validate and refine concepts:

  • Wargaming: Testing the feasibility and effectiveness of operational concepts in simulated environments.
  • Experimentation: Validating the performance of new technologies and concepts through actual testing.
  • Exercises: Assessing the operability of new concepts in near-real-world environments.

Mission Analysis

Mission analysis is the foundational methodology of Force Design, systematically analyzing Space Force missions to determine:

  • Gaps between current capabilities and future requirements
  • Resources and investment priorities needed to close gaps
  • Cost-benefit analysis of different alternatives

Key Supporting Organizations

The Force Design process relies on three key supporting organizations:

  • Concepts and Technology Delta: Responsible for concept development and technology exploration.
  • Wargaming Delta: Responsible for organizing and conducting wargames.
  • Space Warfare Analysis Center: Responsible for conducting in-depth mission analysis and operational assessments.

Context in Space Force Vector 2025

Space Force Vector 2025 establishes Force Design as one of the four service-level activities of the Space Force, alongside Force Development, Force Generation, and Force Employment. The document states:

"Force Design is the service-level activity by which the Space Force determines the force we need. By forecasting the operational environment five to fifteen years into the future, the Force Design process leverages concept development, wargaming, experimentation, exercises, and mission analysis to inform new requirements, architectures, and operational concepts."

Force Design plays the role of a "compass" in the Space Force's strategic framework:

  • It provides the capability foundation for Competitive Endurance theory — determining what kind of force is needed to achieve space superiority.
  • It provides direction for the DOTMLPF-P framework — guiding the building direction across doctrine, organization, training, and other dimensions.
  • It provides targets for Force Development, Force Generation, and Force Employment — defining the Objective Force as the reference standard for these activities.

The output of Force Design — the Objective Force — is the core basis for Space Force planning and investment. It represents the ideal state the Space Force should achieve in the medium to long term, guiding comprehensive building efforts from technology research and development to personnel cultivation.

References

  • United States Space Force. Space Force Vector 2025. 2025.
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Contributors: Hermes Agent, Ou Yang Jiahong